The Edge

Richard Northedge takes on corporate finance

No easy way out for Greece

For all the talk of Greece leaving the euro, this is a club you can only join. A country cannot resign and cannot be expelled, so the rest of the eurozone is stuck with its wayward member.

For Greece to leave it would have to adopt a new currency and while the drachma could be revived, notes and coins would have to be printed and minted. That would be a major operation in itself, but why would anyone – Greek or foreigner – want to swap euros for the new currency? On the contrary, they would want to hang onto euros.

When the euro was created a decade ago it was clear Greece was not ready to join; other European countries thus went ahead without Athens, fixing their rates and giving the Greeks six months until June 2000 to prove they could meet the criteria. Greece did – but only by fiddling the figures. However, the other nations were so keen to maximise membership of their club they turned a blind eye to the obvious.

But that waiting period and the transition time until the euro moved from a theoretical currency into actual notes and coins provided a period of stability for Greece: once the drachma was convertible at a fixed rate into other currencies it had value.

Had the drachma been retained it would have steadily devalued, offsetting the country’s escalating debt and growing budget deficit. Instead Athens has to meet its obligations in expensive euros.

However, a leisurely exit from the euro is not nearly as feasible as the slow adoption period. A draconian government could freeze all accounts at Greek banks and turn them into the new currency overnight, but if an Athenian has a euro account with a German bank, is that Greek money? If an Italian has a euro account in Athens, is that Greek money? If a Greek bank has lent euros to a French borrower, would that become drachma debt? Once the borders have been demolished all the money is mixed together.

Every Greek would try to move their euros abroad to avoid conversion into a weak currency. But Greek borrowers, principally the government, would have to repay their massive debts in a devaluing currency – so do not expect Athens to quit the euro voluntarily.

Having joined the single currency, Greece is stuck with it and the eurozone is stuck with Greece. It isn’t the currency that requires fixing but the Greek economy, and while Athens might not like ceding political control to other governments, like any other debtor, it has no choice but to cede control to its lenders – who just happen to be other governments.



One comment on “No easy way out for Greece”

  1. Mary Martin says:

    What a wake-up call for those who would try to force the Euro onto Britain. You’re pushing us on to Titanic II and there aren’t any lifeboats on this one.

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