Labour: a brand problem or a management problem?
Brands have cycles: what’s popular today may be out of favour in future. And political parties are brands.
It is easy to see why Labour was so attractive in 1997. The party that had been market leader for the previous 18 years had lost its way. Consumers wanted to try something new and they liked what they got, re-electing the party at two further general elections. Even when the government was in trouble it remained more popular than the rival brand.
That is a longer cycle than usual in this market - even if the Conservatives’ previous stretch was unusually long too. So it is not surprising that the Labour brand is waning now. But it would be in decline whoever was in charge.
Unfortunately for him, it is Gordon Brown in charge and critics are attacking him as though a change of manager would revive the brand. But Labour changed its management less than a year ago and its popularity has fallen.
Brown is not doing himself many favours. There are external pressures such as the oil price, credit crunch and the associated economic slowdown. In business parlance his finance director, Mr Darling, has had to make profit warnings and the market still fears he will miss his downgraded targets.
But Brown has made unpopular (and unnecessary) changes to the product (taxes on low incomes, non-doms, capital gains, overseas profits) rather than invest in the brand. But while investment can extend the life of a brand it only extends the cycle.
The chattering class’s calls for management change is now being repeated on doorsteps to pollsters and canvassers. Yet while a majority might want Brown replaced there is no consensus on who should be his successor. For every backer of David Milliband even more critics support other untainted Labour MPs - and many of the critics will not be voting Labour next time whoever is in charge.
The Tories are revelling in the leadership debate too. They think they could defeat even a more popular Labour leader anyway but they are profiting from seeing their rival in disarray and hope it will make Brown an even more damaged prime minister.
The likelihood is that Brown will still be heading the party at the next election and that Labour will lose. Both will be a victim of product life cycles: the public preferred a new brand in 1997 and is ready to change again now. Brands come and go.
