Winning was easy: now Obama must act
I don’t want to rain on Barack Obama’s parade, but for all the praise for his mould-breaking elevation to the White House, America did not vote for him – it voted against George Bush.
Most elections involve people voting against rather than voting for. Britain voted out Jim Callaghan’s struggling government in 1979 rather than for the unknown Margaret Thatcher. They voted out John Major’s limping regime in 1997 rather than vote in Tony Blair.
Sometimes the electorate is pleased with the change, sometimes the new administration proves no more satisfying than the one they displaced. America was so pleased to eject the Nixon/Ford government in 1976 it preferred Jimmy Carter – until it saw Carter at work and chucked him out in favour of Ronald Reagan.
John McCain was fighting against the odds to beat Obama. He is an old man and poor communicator representing the same party as the unpopular Bush. He did well to get the votes he did, but shackled by those burdens, almost any competent opponent would win.
Obama’s slogan was that it was time for change, and having defeated Hilary Clinton, he was the only choice.
He will be wise to use this apparent popularity - and the joy that many gain from a black man becoming president - to kick start the voters into a psychology that tries to overcome recession with a new confidence. Although the economy was facing a different direction in 1997, look at the change in public attitude that accompanied Blair’s arrival in Downing Street.
Obama must use the two months before he takes office to use his world standing to achieve the change that will revive the US economy. He must associate banking crises, recession and home repossessions with the Bush era and be the start of the recovery, not the perpetuator of downturn.
Business will back him if he can speed the turn in the economy.
He cannot count solely on charisma to win a second term. In 2012, blacks will not vote for him simply because of his colour and Republicans will have a more credible candidate while Bush will be history. Obama needs to establish a track record of success so that people vote for the incumbent rather than vote for change again.
