The Edge

Richard Northedge takes on corporate finance

Cutting interest rates can only help

There are many sound reasons for not cutting UK interest rates, but so what; let’s just cut anyway. It won’t do much good, but if it cheers up people, why worry about theoretical economics?

The high rates are intended to stop us spending, thus limiting inflation. Well, perhaps the Bank of England has been so busy recently rescuing the banking system it has not noticed – we’ve stopped anyway.

Yes inflation is rising to 5 per cent, but it will tumble in 2009. Some high prices will stay high but go little higher; many – like petrol, even heating and commodity-based groups – will fall.

Inflation is no longer the problem: it’s recession that threatens the economy – and it is recession that will do most to curb inflation. True, lower rates would weaken sterling further and thus raise import prices, but the US banking problems have already arrested the pound’s fall against the dollar, at least temporarily.

If the Bank fears lowering rates would cause a spending spree and encourage us to overpay for houses again it has misread the public mood completely. A quarter point will make virtually no difference to either mortgage costs nor business outflows but it is a move in the right direction.

But when every financial and economic headline is bad news, a rate cut might provide a smidgeon of confidence to a battered and shattered public. A cut will not avert recession but it can only help.

And if it won’t do a lot of good, it won’t do any harm. It can only help ease the credit crunch.

The Bank knows it’s going to cut eventually. Get on and do it. And cutting before Christmas would not only provide festive cheer, it would boost consumer spending when it makes the most difference.



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