Comments on: Aviva fools everyone - but it is the most foolish http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/business/aviva-fools-everyone-but-it-is-the-most-foolish89954/ Richard Northedge takes on corporate finance Thu, 17 May 2012 04:15:28 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: james heron http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/business/aviva-fools-everyone-but-it-is-the-most-foolish89954/#comment-26825 james heron Thu, 06 Jan 2011 14:29:10 +0000 http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/?p=352#comment-26825 stay well clear of this lot of thieves , can get my money back stay well clear of this lot of thieves , can get my money back

]]> By: Fred Saxone http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/business/aviva-fools-everyone-but-it-is-the-most-foolish89954/#comment-8701 Fred Saxone Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:21:34 +0000 http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/?p=352#comment-8701 An incredibly naive analysis that the financial world was fooled by sleight of hand. The long and the short of it is that Aviva maintained their dividend and have proved the market wrong by there Q1 management statement of a strong IGD position. They have managed to maintain stability in the face of short term adversity yet despite this, a paniced market is looking for excuses to find the next target. Equity markets have seen the world's biggest short squeeze, and with a high beta name like Aviva are now looking to increase their shorts. Even the stories (e.g. Nomura & KBW) that triggered the short run on Aviva stock said that the case for selling on the news should not be overstated - it would just be a way to marginally improve the position if needed. I think the capital position from Q1 has proven that it was not - but only time and the half year results, will tell. An incredibly naive analysis that the financial world was fooled by sleight of hand. The long and the short of it is that Aviva maintained their dividend and have proved the market wrong by there Q1 management statement of a strong IGD position. They have managed to maintain stability in the face of short term adversity yet despite this, a paniced market is looking for excuses to find the next target.

Equity markets have seen the world’s biggest short squeeze, and with a high beta name like Aviva are now looking to increase their shorts. Even the stories (e.g. Nomura & KBW) that triggered the short run on Aviva stock said that the case for selling on the news should not be overstated - it would just be a way to marginally improve the position if needed. I think the capital position from Q1 has proven that it was not - but only time and the half year results, will tell.

]]> By: tim higginson http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/business/aviva-fools-everyone-but-it-is-the-most-foolish89954/#comment-8608 tim higginson Mon, 13 Jul 2009 10:27:15 +0000 http://dofonline.co.uk/blogs/the-edge/?p=352#comment-8608 To think that the city did not grasp that Aviva had reduced its final dividend is disingenuous. The old fashioned concept that a company would pay reliable dividends if its profits permtted as a reassurance to pension fund holders of its shares and if it needed more capital for proper purposes it would approach its shareholders seems to have been forgotten. If Aviva has underprovided for its annuity costs then a proper appraisal would be welcome and a hit to reserves taken. After all the reserves have been overstated. The revised profitability can then be reviewed to determine a proper dividend policy. It could also be the case that many firms on whom Aviva rely to provide income for their guranteed annuities may fold requiring cash support from the parent. Again these risks can be insured, bur a full exposition would be appreciated. Fortunately Mr Moss is a seasoned hand. To think that the city did not grasp that Aviva had reduced its final dividend is disingenuous.
The old fashioned concept that a company would pay reliable dividends if its profits permtted as a reassurance to pension fund holders of its shares and if it needed more capital for proper purposes it would approach its shareholders seems to have been forgotten.
If Aviva has underprovided for its annuity costs then a proper appraisal would be welcome and a hit to reserves taken. After all the reserves have been overstated. The revised profitability can then be reviewed to determine a proper dividend policy.
It could also be the case that many firms on whom Aviva rely to provide income for their guranteed annuities may fold requiring cash support from the parent. Again these risks can be insured, bur a full exposition would be appreciated. Fortunately Mr Moss is a seasoned hand.

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