Value depends on dividends
Northern Rock runs out of money and the share price falls. The Bank of England lends it the money and the share price falls. The company cancels its dividend - and the share price falls again. Surprise, surprise!
It may have been politically correct not to pay a dividend. Had the Treasury not been guaranteeing all deposits it might have been legally correct not to pay shareholders money due to creditors.
But if the value of a share is the discounted value of its future dividends, then cutting the distribution can only cut the company’s market capitalisation. Without the prospect of a future payment – where a dividend or the proceeds of a takeover – shares have no value.
True, a yield that had seemed reasonable when the dividend was announced in July had soared to 22 per cent as the shares collapsed (more even than the interbank rate for the worst-rated credit risk) but the prospect of a 14p payment is no compensation for a £6 fall in the share price. Nevertheless, at this stage of Northern Rock’s game, 14p in hand was quite valuable.
Northern Rock is a rarity in all respects - an allegedly solvent bank that cannot borrow and a private company bailed out by the government – but it is a case study for every finance director. Everyone has much to learn from this episode: savers, regulators, the Bank of England and the Northern Rock itself. But most interesting will be the lesson in share valuation.

The amateurs have taken control of Britain’s boardrooms. When an executive attends the monthly board meeting he or she will be lucky to have one colleague present other than the chief executive: all the other sites are filled with part-timers. The non-executives are supposed to review what the full-time directors are up to but there is an ever decreasing number of executives to monitor.
The myth that the Bank of England sets interest rates has been exposed. The market sets the price of money just as it sets all other prices and, at present, the market says the price is high.


